Chicago-based Northern Trust Asset Management has recently unveiled its 2025 Global Investment Outlook. This global investment management firm, with an impressive $1.3 trillion in assets under management, anticipates that strong earnings and healthy sales growth will fuel the outperformance of US stocks in 2025. A view that is shared by other wealth managers.
Anticipated Market Trends
NTAM believes that although the US economy will experience softer but continuous growth, it will translate into healthy earnings and revenue growth. Small cap equities are also expected to benefit, as about half of their debt is floating interest rate and lower interest rates will likely be advantageous.In multi-asset portfolios, there is a preference for equities over fixed income. NTAM's chief investment officer of global asset allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, stated that they expect US equities to gain from an economic soft landing and healthier corporate profits compared to most other regions. In 2025, they anticipate more moderate gains for 60/40 portfolios, with US equities taking the lead once again.Zurich-headquartered UBS Global Wealth Management also holds a positive view on stock markets in 2025, with US equities being the preferred market. Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Pictet Asset Management also favor US equities due to strong earnings and "Trumponomics."Within fixed income, NTAM's chief investment officer of global fixed income, Christian Roth, continues to favor high yield bonds. The elevated yields, strong fundamentals, and a supportive market backdrop make them an attractive option. Credit ratings upgrades are outpacing downgrades, and the overall credit quality of the high yield market remains historically high.Money market funds remain an appealing alternative for Northern Trust AM compared to other cash management options like deposits or Treasury bills, even as the US Federal Reserve has begun to cut rates. There is little chance of money market rates returning to near-zero. The Bank of England, with concerns over inflation, is likely to cut rates at a slower pace than the European Central Bank, while the firm expects Japan to increase its policy rate gradually.Although US inflation is likely to settle within a range above the US Federal Reserve's target of 2 per cent in 2025, the path is expected to be bumpy. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are considered an important defensive portfolio component for unexpected inflation.Northern Trust AM also believes that private credit has room to expand, supported by the shift in lending from traditional capital providers to private credit asset managers. Lower interest rates may potentially encourage more mergers and acquisitions in 2025.US Economic Outlook
In the US, NTAM's base case economic outlook for 2025 is a soft landing. They expect economic growth to slightly decline below 2024 levels, with inflation continuing to ease towards 2 per cent. The US Federal Reserve is projected to gradually cut rates. However, there are two risk cases to consider from the economic effects of the incoming US president-elect Donald Trump's policy initiatives - reflation and supply restraint. In both scenarios, restrictive immigration, higher tariffs, income tax cuts, and deregulation could disrupt the current soft-landing path.European Economic Outlook
In Europe, the economic situation is a mix of growth and contraction. A resilient labor force and target-level inflation coexist with manufacturing sector contraction and the risks of further geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. In the UK, NTAM expects the Bank of England to adopt a gradual and cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.Asian Economic Outlook
In Asia, while the overall growth outlook is favorable, the situation in China remains a central concern. Economic growth is falling short of the government's 5 per cent target. A slowing economy is deepening a deflationary cycle, with consumer price inflation slightly above zero and producer prices in deep deflation. Japan's economic growth in 2024 was unremarkable, but wage gains that could support consumer spending are spreading across the economy and are expected to continue into 2025.READ MORE